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冷空气的爆发路径及其变化是气象科学研究和业务预报关注的重点问题.使用1970—2013年NCEP-NCAR再分析资料以及中国基本基准825站地面气温均一化数据集,采用改进后的三维风速轨迹倒推方法,追踪了冬半年(10月至次年4月)入侵中国西北地区的强冷空气路径.结果显示,有西北路径88次,偏西路径143次,奇异路径20次.临近爆发前的环流演变导致西北路径和偏西路径冷气团不同程度增温,削弱了源地差异对冷气团强度的影响.西北路径年频次增加幅度为0.37次/10 a,而偏西路径年频次有所减少.相比之下,西北路径强冷空气易于在我国北方地区、东部地区引发极寒事件.偏西路径强冷空气易于在西北、华北地区造成持续时间较长的冷害.
Abstract：Strong cold air outbreak tracking has been a key meteorological focal point over years. With observational data and gridded datasets, " three-dimensional wind speed trajectory inverse method" was used to trace cold air intrusion tracks that occurred during the winter half-years for the northwest China in 1970-2013. The results indicated that there were a total of 88 northwest and 143 westward tracks,and 20 occurrences of " other" tracks. The imminent circulation evolution pattern prior to outbreaks essentially caused two categories of cold air masses to undergo dramatic temperature increases,thereby reduced the impacts of source regional differences on the subject air masses. The measure of annual frequency increment in northwest tracks was determined to be 0. 37 incidents/10 a,while westward tracks' annual frequencies reduced. Westward track was move likly to increase the extreme cold in north and east China.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13705/j.issn.1671-6841.2017064
中图分类号:P429;P434
引用信息:
[1]孙照渤,王宗明,曾刚.基于气流轨迹模式的西北地区强冷空气特征研究[J],2017,49(04):132-138.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6841.2017064.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(41575085,41575102)
2017-03-29
2017
2017-04-17
2017
1